Interesting piece from Andrew Sullivan in the Sunday Times about Obama’s approach to negotiations in foreign policy hot-spot areas like Iran and Israel (here). Sullivan argues against the conventional wisdom that Obama has been unsuccessful in making progress in negotiations with these two countries, but is instead playing a “long game”. If this is true then this kind of patience is a good example of an approach which is all too often absent in modern negotiations, where participants often look too impatiently for quick wins.
Iran’s regime has shown no inclination to compromise over its alleged development of nuclear weapons, and Israel has belligerently resisted efforts to force it to embrace a two state solution for Palestine or even to take a backward step in relation to building settlements in “occupied” territory. Yet Sullivan argues that Obama has simply been taking his time and allowing those who oppose him to defeat themselves rather than forcing the pace. Iran has become weaker economically as sanctions have bitten, and its currency is almost worthless. Obama has persuaded even China and Russia to impose sanctions. Sullivan argues that Religious leaders of Iran may be close to either being forced to accept international scrutiny of their nuclear power programme – or they risk being isolated internationally and presiding over an increasingly mutinous population. Israel has also become more isolated by its intransigence – its relationships with supporters like Turkey and the US have cooled significantly. It now faces the development of a non-Jewish majority in the territories it refuses to let go. The US can safely dilute its support even further as it becomes less dependent on Middle-eastern oil and more able to rely on home produced […]

