Monthly Archives: April 2013

In my new book on negotiating, “The Yes Book”, now out on Random House, I describe some social and business trends which are changing the way that we negotiate and making it essential that we up our game as negotiators. I have split the last part of my blog series into three parts – all related to the environment – the first of the trends I will look at is climate change.

Successive climate change conferences have illustrated some stark choices for nations as to whether to collaborate with each other creatively, or negotiate selfishly over the impact of climate change in a more traditional and old fashioned way.

There seems to be little hope that global temperature rises can now be contained below 2 centigrade. The International Energy Agency in its World Energy Outlook predicts that 2017 will be the year when the world is “locked in” to a rise in global temperatures of at least 2 degrees Celsius. For the world to halt warming at that 2-degree level, it would need to ensure that all additional energy infrastructure was zero carbon or begin phasing-out existing infrastructure before the end of its useful economic life. That is not going to happen.

Experts clamour to warn us of the dire consequences of an increase in global temperatures of 4%. A 4 Centigrade rise in the planet’s temperature (currently predicted for around 50 years’ time) would see severe droughts across the world and millions of migrants seeking refuge as their food supplies collapse.

A series of “thresholds” could be crossed, including the permanent absence of summer ice in the Arctic, loss of most of the tropical coral reefs, disappearance of coastal wetlands, melting of the permafrost […]

In the final part of my series on how social changes are making good negotiating skills even more important, I focus on the effect of resource shortages. As I argue in my book on negotiating, “The Yes Book”, now out on Random House, these changes require us to up our game as modern creative negotiators rather than continuing with old fashioned styles of negotiation based purely on brinkmanship and the application of power. Shortages of water, and fossil fuels both illustrate this imperative.

(A) Water

One of the by-products of global warming from climate change is that water is becoming scarcer, with the increases in temperature coinciding with a peak in world population and the extra demand on food and water resources as a result. The gloss is taken off forecasts of greater economic progress for China and India by predictions of water shortage.

China has a strategic water shortfall. It has almost four times the population of the United States but only the equivalent of one-third of America’s water resources. China’s groundwater reserves are already over-exploited, and water tables are dropping. As the racing economy guzzles it faster and faster, the problem worsens. Fifty percent of cities have been left without drinking water that meets acceptable hygienic standards, according to the World Wildlife Fund.

India is worse off. It depends on the monsoons and flows from the Himalayan glaciers, which are retreating. India has to sustain 20 per cent of the world’s population with just 4 per cent of the world’s freshwater. The Ganges is polluted and water volume on the Indus – a river crucial to both India and Pakistan – is down 30 per cent. As India’s middle-class grows rapidly, its food and […]

In the final part of my blog series featuring content edited out of my book The Yes Book (now out on Random House), I take a look at China’s behaviour in relation to its negotiations over shortages of essential modern minerals required for industrial production. It seems very much to be a mixture of “pressures” and “incentives” – a push-me, pull-you approach.

Some nations are stockpiling important materials and restricting exports in an attempt to protect their own businesses from increasingly fierce global competition. Among the countries known to be stockpiling resources, Japan has said it is storing supplies of seven rare materials it believes are essential to modern life and industry. China is also accused of this behaviour. The United States, the European Union and Japan filed complaints last year with the World Trade Organization charging that China is limiting its export of rare earths, minerals that are vital to the production of technology components.

China has a strong hold on the global supply of 17 rare earth minerals that are essential for making high-tech goods including hybrid cars, weapons, flat-screen TVs, mobile phones, mercury-vapour lights, and camera lenses. However, China has cut its export quotas of these minerals over the past several years to cope with growing demand at home, though the government also cites environmental concerns as the reason for the restrictions. U.S. industry officials suggest it is an unfair trade practice, against rules established by the WTO, a group that includes China as a member.

China is also adopting a more subtle approach to the problem though. Chinese are arriving in Africa in ever greater numbers. An estimated one million are now resident in Africa, up from a few […]

The death of Baroness Thatcher has prompted a review of her negotiating style. She was widely regarded as being combative, stubborn, uncompromising – a real “Iron Lady”.

Some commentators have described this kind of approach as a great strength which helped make Britain respected on the world stage. Others have said that this “precipice” style of negotiation was her Achilles heel and led to her downfall.

So who is right? Certainly I believe that a collaborative style of negotiation is generally appropriate for a modern inter-dependent world. However, I also believe that it’s right to stand up to tough guys who try to push you around – if you don’t make their behaviour the issue then they will keep pushing you. The real skill as a negotiator is to have the judgement to know when to push tough guys back, and when to collaborate.

Viewed in this context it is a bit easier to evaluate Baroness Thatcher’s approach. There is no doubt that she knew when to stand up to tough guys – whether that was the Argentinian Junta invading the Falklands, EU commissioners or other EU leaders trying to rail-road Britain into unfavourable agreements, or bellicose Union leaders like Arthur Scargill. Standing up to these individuals ultimately made them back off and earned Mrs Thatcher many plaudits.

However, you need more than one gear to drive with when you are a negotiator. Not everybody who has a different point of view to you is a tough guy who needs to know that you will not blink. Often if people genuinely disagree with you that is a signal for a co-operative negotiation approach which can enable everyone to get more of what they want, rather than an attritional […]