Don’t be fooled by the mass marches in Dublin over the weekend, or the carping comments from the opposition parties, the Irish government simply has no choice but to agree to the current bail-out, regardless of the terms and the Eurozone countries have no choice but to provide it.

Both parties to the negotiation have the same “survival” need. Without the bail-out the Irish economy will sink under the weight of its own debt, pulling the credibility of the Euro with it.

The interesting subject for debate is not this bail-out and its terms, but where this negotiation between the Eurozone and the money-markets goes next. Despite throwing 85 billion Euros at the Irish problem I would say that the Eurozone countries are no further forward in resolving this problem. In any negotiation you can only secure a win if the other side believes you mean what you say. In this case the money markets simply do not believe that the Euro can or will be defended indefinitely. Expect Portugal and Spain to come under an intense spotlight over the next few weeks and months as the money markets test the Eurozone’s resources of willpower and money to defend what the markets regard as indefensible.