I think the Coalition deal is going to come under real pressure after the May 5th local elections and referendum.

Firstly the Coalition is going to get hammered in the local elections. Secondly, whatever the result of the AV vote, one half of the Coalition is going to be unhappy. If there is a “Yes” vote then the Tories will be unhappy with Cameron for handing the Lib Dems the opportunity to win more seats at the next general election. If there is a “No” vote, a lot of Lib Dems will feel there is not much point in staying as a part of an unpopular coalition if there is no prospect of voting reform.

The rationale for the deal to get the parties into power, will feel less attractive in these circumstances and I could see the alliance coming under serious internal pressure from the wings of each party – particularly if Vince Cable leaves, which can only be a matter of time.